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Follow the Fed: Treasury impact summary – October 2025
The Fed cut rates 25bp, but Powell's comment that a December cut isn't a foregone conclusion was enough to knock market expectations for a follow-up cut down sharply.
This commentary follows the FOMC's update and is TreasurySpring's capital market experts, Henry Adams and Nigel Owen’s opinion, and does not constitute legal, investment, or other advice.
Rate decision
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10-2 for a 25bp cut (1 vote for 50bp, 1 vote no change)
Powell: December cut is “not a foregone conclusion”
Powell’s comments saw the market expectation of a cut in December drop from over 90% to below 70% according to CME FedWatch.
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