TS Pulse: Spy and chips

Lots of equity headlines, particularly around AI, but lots of key data too: 

• Bank of England voted 8-1 to hike the Bank Rate by 25bps, with the one dissenter, Catherine Mann, wanting a 50bps move. Six of the nine members mentioned the possibility of more hikes in the near-term, so December's meeting is now 50/50 for another hike in the eyes of the market, and the whole short-term curve moved up by 6-7 bps. The bank revised its forecast for growth this year to 1.6% from 1.1% and for next year to 1.3% from 1.1%, while saying it sees peak inflation coming at 4.9% in Q2 next year, before taking more than 12 months to return to the 2% target.
• US nonfarm payrolls were particularly strong in October. The 165k reported was 100k above expectations, with September's figure upwardly revised too. This supported the call for a hike in December before this week’s inflation figures.
• Brent Crude Oil traded a $20 range last week, from highs of $114 at the start of the week, down to $94 early yesterday, before climbing to $100, but has resumed its slide this week, dropping below $90 for the first time since August. Optimism holds that Trump may be forced by the midterm results and the subsequent power the Democrats now have to find a way to end the conflict in Iran.
• European inflation came in as expected in October, with the headline number up to 4%, its highest level since September 2023, and the core number remaining at 2.5% for a third month in four. This keeps market expectations high for a hike in December.
• UK house prices fell 0.6% in October, according to Lloyds. This was the largest drop since March 2024 and pushed the annual rate to a 1.2% decline,  the steepest annual fall since October 2023.

Source: Bloomberg; pricing as per 10 November 2026

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